Southeast Asia

With a great interest in Southeast Asia, I've embarked on this "back-of-the-envelope" project to determine just how business-friendly these 'next wave' Asian economies are. I've included the 10 countries of Southeast Asia, everything south of China and east of India (excluding Hong Kong and Singapore): 

Purpose: Analyze the market-readiness of the next wave Asian countries using key indicators of (1) population demographics and attributes, (2) infrastructure development and (3) FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) activity and restrictions



Countries:

Bangladesh
Bhutan
Cambodia
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam


Key Indicators:


Population This most basic indicator tells us the potential size of the market
GDP per capita Gross Domestic Product will give us an idea of the qualityof the potential market. In per capita terms, we are able to fairly compare countries of different sizes
net FDI net Foreign Direct Investment [total inflows - total outflows] give us an idea of the foreign capital that has flowed into the country. This helps us to know if there are others who have seen this market as a worthy investment
Economic Freedom Index Derived by the Heritage Foundation, each country is ranked on a scale of 1 - 100 indicating the relative economic free-ness of a nation
Legal Rights Index Similar to EFI, the Strength of Legal Rights Index is derived by the World Bank and gives us some insight into the strength of each legal system
Electricity Penetration Rate Indicates what percentage of the total population has regular access to electricty
Internet Penetration Rate Indicates what percentage of the total population has regular access to the Internet
Total Railways/Roadways Sum of total roadways and railways within each country
Days to Start a Business Average number of days required to legally start a business
Days to Obtain an Operating License Average number of days required to obtain license for operations
Days to Clear Export Customs Average number of days required to clear products from country of origin
Tax Expense Expected tax expense as a percentage of total revenue
Labour Expense Expected labour expense as a percentage of total revenue
[1-5 are based on population and economic indicators]
[6-8 are based on infrastructure indicators]
[9-13 are based on business indicators]


Country Profiles:













Analysis & Ranking:
In order to compare each country to the nine other countries in this group only, with no outside metrics, I've used a track-meet style scoring method. Each country is ranked from 1 - 10, in order of a quantitative 'best' to a quantitative 'worst'. Each 'best' rank receives 10 points, 2nd 'best' rank receives 9 points, etc. until 10th 'best' rank receives only 1 point. This scoring method is used across all 13 categories of indicators. The results are as follows:

1 Malaysia 104
2 Indonesia 90
3 Vietnam 86
4 Thailand 85
5 Philippines 80
6 Bangladesh 70
7 Bhutan 58
8 Cambodia 53
9 Myanmar 49
10 Laos 44

Debrief:
Malaysia - With over double the next best GDP per capita, Malaysia has nearly full electricity penetration, 2/3 Internet penetration, 10/10 legal rights strength and the highest rank (out of the ten countries) on the economic freedom index. Clear winner, and a great place for investment.
Indonesia - With a massive population and huge FDI inflows, Indonesia shows a lot of potential despite weak legal rights and sub-standard Internet and electricity population rates.
Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Bangladesh - All of these countries show promise, with some weaknesses to seriously consider.
Bhutan, Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos - At the bottom of the spectrum, these countries have virtues that are hard to see underneath piles of problems and potential issues with starting, operating and sustaining a business.

*Data was taken from the World Bank DataBase for years 2012/2013. Special thanks to Dr Roe Goddard of Thunderbird School of Global Management for guidance. Comments/ Questions to brentwjenkins@gmail.com

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