With a great interest in
Southeast Asia, I've embarked on this "back-of-the-envelope" project to
determine just how business-friendly these 'next wave' Asian economies
are. I've included the 10 countries of Southeast Asia, everything south
of China and east of India (excluding Hong Kong and Singapore):
Purpose: Analyze the market-readiness of the next wave Asian countries using key indicators of (1) population demographics and attributes, (2) infrastructure development and (3) FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) activity and restrictions
Countries:
Key Indicators:
[1-5 are based on population and economic indicators]
[6-8 are based on infrastructure indicators]
[9-13 are based on business indicators]
Country Profiles:
Analysis & Ranking:
In order to compare each country to the nine other countries in this group only, with no outside metrics, I've used a track-meet style scoring method. Each country is ranked from 1 - 10, in order of a quantitative 'best' to a quantitative 'worst'. Each 'best' rank receives 10 points, 2nd 'best' rank receives 9 points, etc. until 10th 'best' rank receives only 1 point. This scoring method is used across all 13 categories of indicators. The results are as follows:
Debrief:
Malaysia - With over double the next best GDP per capita, Malaysia has nearly full electricity penetration, 2/3 Internet penetration, 10/10 legal rights strength and the highest rank (out of the ten countries) on the economic freedom index. Clear winner, and a great place for investment.
Indonesia - With a massive population and huge FDI inflows, Indonesia shows a lot of potential despite weak legal rights and sub-standard Internet and electricity population rates.
Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Bangladesh - All of these countries show promise, with some weaknesses to seriously consider.
Bhutan, Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos - At the bottom of the spectrum, these countries have virtues that are hard to see underneath piles of problems and potential issues with starting, operating and sustaining a business.
*Data was taken from the World Bank DataBase for years 2012/2013. Special thanks to Dr Roe Goddard of Thunderbird School of Global Management for guidance. Comments/ Questions to brentwjenkins@gmail.com
Purpose: Analyze the market-readiness of the next wave Asian countries using key indicators of (1) population demographics and attributes, (2) infrastructure development and (3) FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) activity and restrictions
Countries:
| Bangladesh | ||||
Key Indicators:
| Population | This most basic indicator tells us the potential size of the market |
| GDP per capita | Gross Domestic Product will give us an idea of the qualityof the potential market. In per capita terms, we are able to fairly compare countries of different sizes |
| net FDI | net Foreign Direct Investment [total inflows - total outflows] give us an idea of the foreign capital that has flowed into the country. This helps us to know if there are others who have seen this market as a worthy investment |
| Economic Freedom Index | Derived by the Heritage Foundation, each country is ranked on a scale of 1 - 100 indicating the relative economic free-ness of a nation |
| Legal Rights Index | Similar to EFI, the Strength of Legal Rights Index is derived by the World Bank and gives us some insight into the strength of each legal system |
| Electricity Penetration Rate | Indicates what percentage of the total population has regular access to electricty |
| Internet Penetration Rate | Indicates what percentage of the total population has regular access to the Internet |
| Total Railways/Roadways | Sum of total roadways and railways within each country |
| Days to Start a Business | Average number of days required to legally start a business |
| Days to Obtain an Operating License | Average number of days required to obtain license for operations |
| Days to Clear Export Customs | Average number of days required to clear products from country of origin |
| Tax Expense | Expected tax expense as a percentage of total revenue |
| Labour Expense | Expected labour expense as a percentage of total revenue |
[6-8 are based on infrastructure indicators]
[9-13 are based on business indicators]
Country Profiles:
Analysis & Ranking:
In order to compare each country to the nine other countries in this group only, with no outside metrics, I've used a track-meet style scoring method. Each country is ranked from 1 - 10, in order of a quantitative 'best' to a quantitative 'worst'. Each 'best' rank receives 10 points, 2nd 'best' rank receives 9 points, etc. until 10th 'best' rank receives only 1 point. This scoring method is used across all 13 categories of indicators. The results are as follows:
| 1 | Malaysia | 104 |
| 2 | Indonesia | 90 |
| 3 | Vietnam | 86 |
| 4 | Thailand | 85 |
| 5 | Philippines | 80 |
| 6 | Bangladesh | 70 |
| 7 | Bhutan | 58 |
| 8 | Cambodia | 53 |
| 9 | Myanmar | 49 |
| 10 | Laos | 44 |
Debrief:
Malaysia - With over double the next best GDP per capita, Malaysia has nearly full electricity penetration, 2/3 Internet penetration, 10/10 legal rights strength and the highest rank (out of the ten countries) on the economic freedom index. Clear winner, and a great place for investment.
Indonesia - With a massive population and huge FDI inflows, Indonesia shows a lot of potential despite weak legal rights and sub-standard Internet and electricity population rates.
Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Bangladesh - All of these countries show promise, with some weaknesses to seriously consider.
Bhutan, Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos - At the bottom of the spectrum, these countries have virtues that are hard to see underneath piles of problems and potential issues with starting, operating and sustaining a business.
*Data was taken from the World Bank DataBase for years 2012/2013. Special thanks to Dr Roe Goddard of Thunderbird School of Global Management for guidance. Comments/ Questions to brentwjenkins@gmail.com
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